Sparks of War: Syria, Iran and Israel

Updated Feb. 9 @ 2p.m. (see bottome of article)

I follow intelligence and military affairs very closely. Here is my assessment of events unfolding in the Arabian sea and the Persian Gulf:

Usually the US Navy keeps a carrier strike force in the Persian Gulf and one in the Arabian Sea. The US Fifth fleet is also headquartered in Bahrain. A few weeks ago the USS Stennis CVN 74 left the Persian Gulf and the Iranians threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz if they ever return. 

That has led to a series of moves by the United States and Allies.The USS Carl Vinson CVN 70 the USS Stennis have formed up and have been joined by the USS Abraham Lincoln CVN 72. Never before has the US Navy mustered three Carriers for the Persian Gulf (except for the invasion of Afghanistan). The three Carrier Strike Forces and the 5 th Fleet on alert are extraordinary deployments.

At the same time the geo-political pot is boiling furiously. Monday morning (2/6/12) we closed our US Embassy in Syria, who is a direct ally of Iran. The Israelis are indicating their readiness to conduct pre-emptive strikes on the Iranian Nuclear Sites (it is assumed they bombed the Syrian and Iraqi sites in the past). SOMEONE has assassinated four key Iranian Nuclear Scientists in the last 18 months.

The Israelis have indicated that they estimate 500 civilian casualties from Hamas and Hezbollah from mortar attacks if they strike Iran. Trust me, when Israel publicizes estimated future casualty rates, that's not normal for them.

The big big tip off will be if the US coordinates the Identification Friend or Foe (IFF) codes with the Israelis. We stopped the Israelis in the Iraq war from launching air strikes on Iraq (remember the Scud attacks on Israel?) by denying the IFF codes, and they could not fly without being shot down by coalition planes and missiles.

On top of all this, the European Union has joined the US in cutting down on Iranian oil and will decide next week to cut or not cut completely.

Also, the Obama Administration, as of December 31, passed an executive order that will asses penalties on all foreign corporations that do business with Iran. Gee power I never knew he had. The Iranians are really feeling the pinch now, the the Rial (their money) has dropped 50 percent to the dollar, economic panic has set in on the streets of Iran and the Government has threatened execution of money traders. Last but not least our good friends the Chinese and Russians vetoed more severe sanctions by the United Nations. And, the Chinese have offered to buy all the Iranian oil that the Westerners "don't want" anymore.

Historically it is situations like these that start wars, any spark will do.

Well folks, that's the main intelligence assessment to date, sleep well tonight!

Update: The USS Stennis CVN-74 Strike Force has left the Arabian Sea and has chopped from the 5th Fleet to the 7th fleet. The short joining of three Carriers in the approximate area of the Persian Gulf is now over. It appears that the Stennis will continue with it's normal WESTPAC schedule, as a poster suggested to me a few days ago. Remember I have no inside information, just reading the tea leaves like any one. Sometimes the US Navy uses a "relief/rotation" of units to stage an unexpected show of force. It looks to me now that window is closed. Tensions are high in the area, Israel and Iran are eye ball to eyeball with another window of possible military action opening in May.

This message is unclassified, gleaned from public information available to anyone... I'm just good at connecting military and political information. These are the opinions of Randy Voepel and not affiliated in anyway with the Santee City Council or City of Santee.